Bitcoin is trading at a level below $ 8,000 at the time of writing this post as part of a short-term correction after updating new highs in the previous two days.
In connection with the new growth rate, many in the cryptocurrency community are asking a logical question – at what level will the bull trend stop at this time?
The crypto trader and investor from Level company Josh Ranger tried to answer this question. The expert builds his hypotheses based on the cyclical nature of the market – for three completed bitcoin cycles, the price increase decreased by about 80% each time, which is a concept defined by the law of diminishing returns.
Bullish rally after a global fall in 2011 showed a recovery of 320,000%; in 2014 – 58.500%; and in 2017 – 12,000%. Thus, if the story repeats, this time Bitcoin should grow by 2,400% of its bottom – up to $ 80,000.
Bitcoin Rate of Return Each Market Cycle— Josh Rager 📈 (@Josh_Rager) May 14, 2019
(Each cycle had a 20% return of the previous cycle)
2011: Return of 318,864% = $31.90 High
2014: Return of 58,474% = $1,177.19 High
2017: Return of 11,960% = $19,764.51 High
2022: Potential Return of 2,392% = $78,500.00 Potential High pic.twitter.com/7KP439cpZE
Many of Rager subscribers are confident that the next peak will be even higher than $ 80,000. In a survey published before the tweet, 43% of the 4,300 respondents favored rebuilding much more than $ 80,000.
What do you think the next cycle high Bitcoin price will be?— Josh Rager 📈 (@Josh_Rager) May 14, 2019
(cycle high is the next high before the next down market)
Known in the cryptocurrency community, the Galaxy cryptanalyst claims that the current monthly Bitcoin chart looks very similar to that observed at the end of 2015, when the market began its famous bull rally, which ended in early 2018.
The expert notes that at that time a massive green candle was formed after a year of the bear market, then a price jump of 6,500% followed in two years. Thus, Galaxy is sure that if the historical precedent is repeated, by the end of 2021 the rate of the main world cryptocurrency will exceed $ 333,000.
Observing structure similarities between the monthly candles of October 2015 and April 2019.— Galaxy (@galaxyBTC) May 1, 2019
October 2015 marked the start of most significant bull run in BTC history after a 6500% price surge in 2 years.
Another similar bull run puts BTC at over $330K/coin, by the end of 2021. pic.twitter.com/KTCRLd8jRH
Moreover, some analysts are confident that in the next couple of years, Bitcoin will begin to absorb part of the market capitalization of gold, which amounts to $ 8 trillion, which ultimately could lead to a value of a $ 500,000 coin.